SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening from the middle Missouri Valley into southern Wisconsin. ..Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A pair of ridges, one centered over the Great Basin and the other over the middle MS Valley, will remain largely in place throughout the day, displacing much of the westerly flow aloft north of the international border. A subtle, convectively induced vorticity maximum is expected to move northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. A decaying frontal zone will also extend across a similar area, likely stretching from west-central KS northeastward into southern WI by the afternoon. Strong heating coupled with ample low-level moisture will result in airmass destabilization and strong instability. Forcing for ascent from the vorticity maximum as well as convergence along the front will provide the impetus for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Previously mentioned northward displacement of the stronger westerly flow should temper vertical shear, leading to a predominantly multicell mode characterized by transient updrafts. Even so, given the robust instability present, a few stronger, more persistent updrafts are possible, particularly across IA and southern WI where the upper flow will likely be slightly stronger than areas farther southwest. As such, a low probability severe threat exists in this areas, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. ...AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is expected across the region with scattered afternoon thunderstorms anticipated. Upper flow across the region is expected to be very weak, limiting updraft persistence and strength. Even so, the potential exists for a few of the storms to move into the deeply mixed airmass across the lower deserts. If this occurs, strong cold pools could develop, resulting in a threat for strong wind gusts. Uncertainty on this scenario is currently too high to introduce any severe probabilities with this outlook but some may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: Read more
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