SPC Jul 12, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening from the middle Missouri Valley into southern Wisconsin.

..Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A pair of ridges, one centered over the Great Basin and the other
over the middle MS Valley, will remain largely in place throughout
the day, displacing much of the westerly flow aloft north of the
international border. A subtle, convectively induced vorticity
maximum is expected to move northeastward from the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest. A decaying frontal zone will also extend
across a similar area, likely stretching from west-central KS
northeastward into southern WI by the afternoon. Strong heating
coupled with ample low-level moisture will result in airmass
destabilization and strong instability. Forcing for ascent from the
vorticity maximum as well as convergence along the front will
provide the impetus for late afternoon thunderstorm development.

Previously mentioned northward displacement of the stronger westerly
flow should temper vertical shear, leading to a predominantly
multicell mode characterized by transient updrafts. Even so, given
the robust instability present, a few stronger, more persistent
updrafts are possible, particularly across IA and southern WI where
the upper flow will likely be slightly stronger than areas farther
southwest. As such, a low probability severe threat exists in this
areas, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

...AZ...
Ample monsoonal moisture is expected across the region with
scattered afternoon thunderstorms anticipated. Upper flow across the
region is expected to be very weak, limiting updraft persistence and
strength. Even so, the potential exists for a few of the storms to
move into the deeply mixed airmass across the lower deserts. If this
occurs, strong cold pools could develop, resulting in a threat for
strong wind gusts. Uncertainty on this scenario is currently too
high to introduce any severe probabilities with this outlook but
some may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
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