SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina as Hurricane Florence continues to impact the region today into tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas -- Hurricane Florence... A long-duration, relatively low-magnitude tornado threat is expected to continue across portions of eastern NC today into tonight. Hurricane Florence is forecast to be approaching the NC coast near Wilmington by 12Z this morning, with a slow west-southwestward movement expected into northeast SC by Saturday morning. While weakening of the wind field is expected once landfall occurs, very strong low-level flow will contribute to 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 across portions of eastern NC. With minimal diabatic heating expected, buoyancy will largely be driven by low-level moisture content, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg possible in areas where surface dewpoints are in the mid-upper 70s F. The most favorable juxtaposition of surface theta-e and low-level shear is expected in the northeast quadrant of the circulation, which should largely remain over coastal regions of east-central and southeast NC, where 5% tornado probabilities are included with this outlook. ...Central/northern Minnesota... Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight across portions of central/northern MN, as low-level warm advection gradually increases to the north of a nearly stationary front. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt may support updraft organization with some potential for hail, though uncertainty remains regarding the sustenance of discrete convective modes that would be more favorable for a severe hail threat. No probabilities have been included for this scenario at this time, but some may eventually be needed depending on observational and guidance trends later today. ..Dean/Broyles/Wendt.. 09/14/2018
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