SPC Sep 14, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z


A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina as
Hurricane Florence continues to impact the region today into

...Coastal Carolinas -- Hurricane Florence...
A long-duration, relatively low-magnitude tornado threat is expected
to continue across portions of eastern NC today into tonight.
Hurricane Florence is forecast to be approaching the NC coast near
Wilmington by 12Z this morning, with a slow west-southwestward
movement expected into northeast SC by Saturday morning. While
weakening of the wind field is expected once landfall occurs, very
strong low-level flow will contribute to 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2
across portions of eastern NC. With minimal diabatic heating
expected, buoyancy will largely be driven by low-level moisture
content, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg possible in areas where
surface dewpoints are in the mid-upper 70s F. The most favorable
juxtaposition of surface theta-e and low-level shear is expected in
the northeast quadrant of the circulation, which should largely
remain over coastal regions of east-central and southeast NC, where
5% tornado probabilities are included with this outlook. 

...Central/northern Minnesota...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight across portions of
central/northern MN, as low-level warm advection gradually increases
to the north of a nearly stationary front. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and effective shear of 30-40 kt may support updraft organization
with some potential for hail, though uncertainty remains regarding
the sustenance of discrete convective modes that would be more
favorable for a severe hail threat. No probabilities have been
included for this scenario at this time, but some may eventually be
needed depending on observational and guidance trends later today.

..Dean/Broyles/Wendt.. 09/14/2018

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