SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTINOS OF THE CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina in the vicinity of Florence. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible across northern Minnesota. ...Synopsis... Florence -- expected to have diminished to tropical storm strength by the start of the period per the latest NHC forecasts -- is forecast to shift westward across eastern and central South Carolina Saturday, within an expansive area of mid- and upper-level ridging extending from the Southern Rockies and Plains states eastward across the entire central and eastern portions of the country. Meanwhile, farther west a positively tilted trough will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward across the Pacific Northwest and into western Canada. At the surface, the primary feature aside from Florence will be a cold front forecast to linger over the western U.S. through the period. ...Parts of the Carolinas... Though gradually weakening with time, strong easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will persist within the northeast quadrant of Florence, i.e. across parts of eastern South Carolina and adjacent North Carolina through the period. Though extensive cloud cover and moist-adiabatic lapse rates will limit instability, the strong/veering flow field with height across this region will support isolated rotating cells within bands of convection rotating around Florence's center. As such, potential for a few tornadoes is apparent. ...Northern Minnesota... A warm front is forecast to shift northward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the day, as southerly/southeasterly flow increases ahead of the western upper trough. While the warm sector should remain capped -- partially as a result of weak subsidence beneath broad upper ridging, isentropic ascent north of the warm front is expected to increase with time, particularly into the evening as a low-level jet develops. With steep mid-level lapse rates in place and warming/moistening atop the warm frontal zone, thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening north of the front across northern Minnesota and into adjacent portions of Canada. With amply strong mid-level southwesterlies, a few organized/elevated cells may produce large hail in the vicinity of the international border area. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 09/14/2018
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