SPC Sep 14, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTINOS OF THE CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two is possible across southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina in the vicinity of Florence. A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible across northern Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Florence -- expected to have diminished to tropical storm strength
by the start of the period per the latest NHC forecasts -- is
forecast to shift westward across eastern and central South Carolina
Saturday, within an expansive area of mid- and upper-level ridging
extending from the Southern Rockies and Plains states eastward
across the entire central and eastern portions of the country. 
Meanwhile, farther west a positively tilted trough will extend from
the eastern Pacific northeastward across the Pacific Northwest and
into western Canada.

At the surface, the primary feature aside from Florence will be a
cold front forecast to linger over the western U.S. through the
period.

...Parts of the Carolinas...
Though gradually weakening with time, strong easterly/southeasterly
low-level flow will persist within the northeast quadrant of
Florence, i.e. across parts of eastern South Carolina and adjacent
North Carolina through the period.  Though extensive cloud cover and
moist-adiabatic lapse rates will limit instability, the
strong/veering flow field with height across this region will
support isolated rotating cells within bands of convection rotating
around Florence's center.  As such, potential for a few tornadoes is
apparent.

...Northern Minnesota...
A warm front is forecast to shift northward across the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the day, as
southerly/southeasterly flow increases ahead of the western upper
trough.  While the warm sector should remain capped -- partially as
a result of weak subsidence beneath broad upper ridging, isentropic
ascent north of the warm front is expected to increase with time,
particularly into the evening as a low-level jet develops.  With
steep mid-level lapse rates in place and warming/moistening atop the
warm frontal zone, thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
evening north of the front across northern Minnesota and into
adjacent portions of Canada.  With amply strong mid-level
southwesterlies, a few organized/elevated cells may produce large
hail in the vicinity of the international border area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Goss.. 09/14/2018

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