SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe storms appears minimal at this time across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail across most of the central and eastern U.S. Sunday, while troughing over the Pacific Northwest vicinity gradually deamplifies with time. Meanwhile, Florence is expected to continue weakening, becoming a tropical depression over the southern Appalachians vicinity per the latest NHC forecast. While low-level flow surrounding Florence will remain moderately strong -- particularly north of the center across the North Carolina vicinity, upslope component to the flow suggests widespread precipitation and moist adiabatic lapse rates. While the tornado risk appears to be non-zero, potential appears too low at this time to warrant introduction of severe weather probability. Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across the northern Plains, as short-wave troughing advances across the region. However, with stronger flow aloft likely to remain well to the cool side of the surface front, marginal shear and the likelihood that storms remain isolated preclude addition of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 09/14/2018
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