SPC Sep 14, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe storms appears minimal at this time across the U.S. 
on Sunday.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail across most of the
central and eastern U.S. Sunday, while troughing over the Pacific
Northwest vicinity gradually deamplifies with time.  Meanwhile,
Florence is expected to continue weakening, becoming a tropical
depression over the southern Appalachians vicinity per the latest
NHC forecast.

While low-level flow surrounding Florence will remain moderately
strong -- particularly north of the center across the North Carolina
vicinity, upslope component to the flow suggests widespread
precipitation and moist adiabatic lapse rates.  While the tornado
risk appears to be non-zero, potential appears too low at this time
to warrant introduction of severe weather probability.

Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across the
northern Plains, as short-wave troughing advances across the region.
However, with stronger flow aloft likely to remain well to the cool
side of the surface front, marginal shear and the likelihood that
storms remain isolated preclude addition of a risk area at this
time.

..Goss.. 09/14/2018

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