SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina in the vicinity of Florence. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible across northern Minnesota. ...Parts of the Carolinas... Florence's wind field, though gradually weakening Saturday, will feature strong easterly/southeasterly low-level flow within its northeast quadrant located over northeast SC and southern NC. Though extensive cloud cover/rain will limit destabilization, the strong/veering low-level flow will maintain large hodographs. Intermittent stronger updrafts within the convective bands will have an ability to yield transient weak rotation and the possibility for one or two weak/brief tornadoes. ...Northern Minnesota... A warm front is forecast to shift northward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the day, as southerly/southeasterly flow increases ahead of the western upper trough. While the warm sector should remain capped -- partially as a result of weak subsidence beneath broad upper ridging, isentropic ascent north of the warm front is expected to increase with time, particularly into the evening as a low-level jet develops. With steep mid-level lapse rates in place and warming/moistening atop the warm frontal zone, thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening north of the front across northern Minnesota and into adjacent portions of Canada. With amply strong mid-level southwesterlies, a few organized/elevated cells may produce large hail in the vicinity of the international border area. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 09/14/2018
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