SPC Sep 14, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two is possible across southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina in the vicinity of Florence.  A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible across northern Minnesota.

...Parts of the Carolinas...
Florence's wind field, though gradually weakening Saturday, will
feature strong easterly/southeasterly low-level flow within its
northeast quadrant located over northeast SC and southern NC. 
Though extensive cloud cover/rain will limit destabilization, the 
strong/veering low-level flow will maintain large hodographs. 
Intermittent stronger updrafts within the convective bands will have
an ability to yield transient weak rotation and the possibility for
one or two weak/brief tornadoes.

...Northern Minnesota...
A warm front is forecast to shift northward across the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the day, as
southerly/southeasterly flow increases ahead of the western upper
trough.  While the warm sector should remain capped -- partially as
a result of weak subsidence beneath broad upper ridging, isentropic
ascent north of the warm front is expected to increase with time,
particularly into the evening as a low-level jet develops.  With
steep mid-level lapse rates in place and warming/moistening atop the
warm frontal zone, thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
evening north of the front across northern Minnesota and into
adjacent portions of Canada.  With amply strong mid-level
southwesterlies, a few organized/elevated cells may produce large
hail in the vicinity of the international border area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Smith.. 09/14/2018

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