SPC Nov 9, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few instances of hail approaching severe levels remain possible
tonight across south-central through south Texas.

...South central through south Texas...

A cold front located across deep south TX will continue slowly
southward tonight, along with the deeper portion of baroclinic zone
currently located across north central TX. Modest southwesterly flow
above the frontal inversion will sustain isentropic ascent in this
region, with the zone of deeper ascent gradually spreading
southward, promoting development of additional elevated
thunderstorms across central and south TX tonight. The 00Z RAOB data
indicate only modest (6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates above the
moist layer, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE along with 30-40 kt
effective bulk shear. Weak to modest mid-level rotation may exist
within the stronger updrafts, and these storms could pose some
threat for mainly hail into the overnight hours.

..Dial.. 11/09/2018

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