SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of hail approaching severe levels remain possible tonight across south-central through south Texas. ...South central through south Texas... A cold front located across deep south TX will continue slowly southward tonight, along with the deeper portion of baroclinic zone currently located across north central TX. Modest southwesterly flow above the frontal inversion will sustain isentropic ascent in this region, with the zone of deeper ascent gradually spreading southward, promoting development of additional elevated thunderstorms across central and south TX tonight. The 00Z RAOB data indicate only modest (6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates above the moist layer, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE along with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Weak to modest mid-level rotation may exist within the stronger updrafts, and these storms could pose some threat for mainly hail into the overnight hours. ..Dial.. 11/09/2018
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