SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from a portion of South Texas, the Southeast States and northward to the Middle Atlantic and New England coastal region. ...Middle Atlantic coastal area through southern New England... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Plains will become absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream trough and continue through the OH Valley before reaching the Middle Atlantic area by early evening. A quasi-stationary front extends from south TX through the Gulf coastal area, then eastward to off the GA coast. The primary cyclone is forecast to evolve over the OH Valley and Great Lakes today in association with the amplifying northern-stream trough, while secondary cyclogenesis is forecast along the Middle Atlantic coast with the arrival of the minor shortwave trough. Given richer low-level moisture remains well south of this region off the coastal Carolinas, and expected proximity of the evolving surface low to the coast later today, it appears unlikely that substantial surface-based destabilization will occur inland. Nevertheless, relatively shallow convection capable of isolated lightning strikes may develop within the zone of increasing frontogenesis associated with the evolving surface low, primarily from NJ into southern New England. The likely maintenance of the near-surface stable layer and very weak instability should preclude a threat for severe storms. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms should once again develop in vicinity of the front over a portion of the Southeast States. The warm sector will remain south of the stronger flow aloft with modest 30-35 kt effective bulk shear along with weak mid-level lapse rates and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms should remain multicell in character, but an isolated strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon or early evening. ..Dial/Squitieri.. 11/09/2018
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