SPC Nov 9, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from a
portion of South Texas, the Southeast States and northward to the
Middle Atlantic and New England coastal region.

...Middle Atlantic coastal area through southern New England...

Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Plains will
become absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream
trough and continue through the OH Valley before reaching the Middle
Atlantic area by early evening. A quasi-stationary front extends
from south TX through the Gulf coastal area, then eastward to off
the GA coast. The primary cyclone is forecast to evolve over the OH
Valley and Great Lakes today in association with the amplifying
northern-stream trough, while secondary cyclogenesis is forecast
along the Middle Atlantic coast with the arrival of the minor
shortwave trough. Given richer low-level moisture remains well south
of this region off the coastal Carolinas, and expected proximity of
the evolving surface low to the coast later today, it appears
unlikely that substantial surface-based destabilization will occur
inland. Nevertheless, relatively shallow convection capable of
isolated lightning strikes may develop within the zone of increasing
frontogenesis associated with the evolving surface low, primarily
from NJ into southern New England. The likely maintenance of the
near-surface stable layer and very weak instability should preclude
a threat for severe storms.  

...Southeast States...

Thunderstorms should once again develop in vicinity of the front
over a portion of the Southeast States. The warm sector will remain
south of the stronger flow aloft with modest 30-35 kt effective bulk
shear along with weak mid-level lapse rates and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. These storms should remain multicell in character, but an
isolated strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon or early evening.

..Dial/Squitieri.. 11/09/2018

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