SPC Nov 9, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


Appreciable thunderstorm activity is not expected across the U.S. on
Saturday; however, a few lightning strikes may be noted near Lakes
Erie and Ontario.


Large-scale pattern will become increasingly hostile toward deep
convection this weekend as dominant surface anticyclone settles into
the MS Valley early, then shifts into the Middle Atlantic. While
weak convection may evolve off the southern FL Peninsula it appears
any showers that form over land will struggle to produce lighting.

Farther north, very cold air will spread across the Great Lakes
Saturday and surface-3km lapse rates are forecast to steepen
significantly, especially across the lower Great Lakes. Convection
will undoubtedly develop across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and cloud
heights may approach levels supportive of generating lightning.
While a few strikes may be noted in the lee of these lakes, the
greater threat will remain over the open water and coverage should
remain too sparse to warrant 10% threat area at this time.

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