SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into southern Mississippi Sunday. ...TX to MS... Surface ridging will dominate much of the CONUS during the day3 period as a reinforcing surge of continental air plunges south across the Rockies/Plains into TX/lower MS Valley by the end of the period. Prior to this frontal surge, low-level warm advection is expected to increase across the TX Coastal Plain as LLJ strengthens atop a shallow, retreating elongated surface ridge over the Gulf states. While surface-based buoyancy should hold offshore, forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will be sufficiently buoyant and uninhibited for elevated thunderstorm development. Latest guidance suggests a corridor of storms should evolve north of an old boundary draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico driven largely by warm advection. ...South FL... Upper ridging is forecast to extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico across south FL Sunday. Weak low-level convergence near the southern Atlantic coast may contribute to weak convection and isolated thunderstorm activity. Negligible large-scale forcing for ascent should limit the intensity of this activity. ..Darrow.. 11/09/2018
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