SPC Nov 9, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into southern
Mississippi Sunday.

...TX to MS...

Surface ridging will dominate much of the CONUS during the day3
period as a reinforcing surge of continental air plunges south
across the Rockies/Plains into TX/lower MS Valley by the end of the
period. Prior to this frontal surge, low-level warm advection is
expected to increase across the TX Coastal Plain as LLJ strengthens
atop a shallow, retreating elongated surface ridge over the Gulf
states. While surface-based buoyancy should hold offshore, forecast
soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will be sufficiently
buoyant and uninhibited for elevated thunderstorm development.
Latest guidance suggests a corridor of storms should evolve north of
an old boundary draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico driven
largely by warm advection.

...South FL...

Upper ridging is forecast to extend across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across south FL Sunday. Weak low-level convergence near the
southern Atlantic coast may contribute to weak convection and
isolated thunderstorm activity. Negligible large-scale forcing for
ascent should limit the intensity of this activity.

..Darrow.. 11/09/2018

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