SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 01/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning strikes may still occur along coastal southern California as the mid-level cyclone centered over Santa Barbara County gradually progresses south along the coast through this afternoon. Thereafter, the low will pivot east towards west-central AZ and end any risk for thunder along the coast. A couple strikes are possible along parts of the Mogollon Rim tonight with approach of the mid-level cyclone amid paltry elevated buoyancy. Overall probability in this region does not yet appear to reach the 10 percent threshold for delineation. Along the central Gulf Coast, area 12Z soundings sampled negligible instability. Continued low-level moistening via southwest winds may support scant elevated buoyancy by afternoon. This might support isolated, low-topped convection inland despite upper-level temperatures likely remaining too warm for adequate charge separation amid near-neutral height change.
There’s more click here.