SPC Jan 12, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through early Sunday.

...Discussion...
No change was made to the previous outlook.

..Smith.. 01/12/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/

...Discussion...
Sporadic lightning strikes may still occur along coastal southern
California as the mid-level cyclone centered over Santa Barbara
County gradually progresses south along the coast through this
afternoon. Thereafter, the low will pivot east towards west-central
AZ and end any risk for thunder along the coast. A couple strikes
are possible along parts of the Mogollon Rim tonight with approach
of the mid-level cyclone amid paltry elevated buoyancy. Overall
probability in this region does not yet appear to reach the 10
percent threshold for delineation.

Along the central Gulf Coast, area 12Z soundings sampled negligible
instability. Continued low-level moistening via southwest winds may
support scant elevated buoyancy by afternoon. This might support
isolated, low-topped convection inland despite upper-level
temperatures likely remaining too warm for adequate charge
separation amid near-neutral height change.

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