SPC Jan 13, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Some thunder potential will be noted across portions of eastern
North/South Carolina through early afternoon.

...Eastern NC/SC...

Strong mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern
GA then off the NC coast during the latter half of the period.
Along/north of this jet, large-scale ascent will be maximized ahead
of a notable short-wave trough that should eject across the southern
Appalachians around 18z. This feature should induce a surface wave
along a wedge front draped across coastal Carolinas early and
subsequent movement will be northeast ahead of the short wave toward
the northern Outer Banks region. Forecast soundings across the
eastern Carolinas suggest weak buoyancy will develop early in the
period as warm advection intensifies ahead of the deepening surface
wave. As a result, some thunder potential will be noted with
elevated convection that develops ahead of the strengthening surface
wave. Thunder threat will shift offshore during the early afternoon
hours as a cold front surges toward the coast.

..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/13/2019

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