SPC Mar 19, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday.

...Florida Keys vicinity...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Straits of Florida
through the afternoon.

...Southern Rockies...
A shortwave trough over the Black Hills will move south into Kansas
through 12Z Wednesday. Scant boundary-layer moisture amid steep
low/mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with post-frontal upslope
flow along the adjacent High Plains may aid in isolated thunder
occurrence during the late afternoon to early evening.

...California...
A shortwave trough will approach the California coast through early
Wednesday. The onset of mid-level height falls should overspread the
Central Valley and western Sierra Nevada this evening where limited
buoyancy might support a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, very isolated
thunder may accompany the trough as mid-level lapse rates steepen
near the central/southern coast in the early morning.

...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the region this
afternoon near an advancing surface low and front, although
worst-case thermodynamic profiles will likely remain only marginally
conducive for lightning generation. Thus, a very low
coverage/probability (10 percent or less) of thunderstorms is
currently perceived.

..Guyer/Goss.. 03/19/2019

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