SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday. ...Florida Keys vicinity... A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Straits of Florida through the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies... A shortwave trough over the Black Hills will move south into Kansas through 12Z Wednesday. Scant boundary-layer moisture amid steep low/mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with post-frontal upslope flow along the adjacent High Plains may aid in isolated thunder occurrence during the late afternoon to early evening. ...California... A shortwave trough will approach the California coast through early Wednesday. The onset of mid-level height falls should overspread the Central Valley and western Sierra Nevada this evening where limited buoyancy might support a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, very isolated thunder may accompany the trough as mid-level lapse rates steepen near the central/southern coast in the early morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the region this afternoon near an advancing surface low and front, although worst-case thermodynamic profiles will likely remain only marginally conducive for lightning generation. Thus, a very low coverage/probability (10 percent or less) of thunderstorms is currently perceived. ..Guyer/Goss.. 03/19/2019
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