SPC Mar 19, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday.

...20z Update...

The ongoing forecast is on track and changes are not needed. See the
previous discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 03/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/

...Florida Keys vicinity...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Straits of Florida
through the afternoon.

...Southern Rockies...
A shortwave trough over the Black Hills will move south into Kansas
through 12Z Wednesday. Scant boundary-layer moisture amid steep
low/mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with post-frontal upslope
flow along the adjacent High Plains may aid in isolated thunder
occurrence during the late afternoon to early evening.

A shortwave trough will approach the California coast through early
Wednesday. The onset of mid-level height falls should overspread the
Central Valley and western Sierra Nevada this evening where limited
buoyancy might support a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, very isolated
thunder may accompany the trough as mid-level lapse rates steepen
near the central/southern coast in the early morning.

...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the region this
afternoon near an advancing surface low and front, although
worst-case thermodynamic profiles will likely remain only marginally
conducive for lightning generation. Thus, a very low
coverage/probability (10 percent or less) of thunderstorms is
currently perceived.

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