SPC Jun 25, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At least some severe threat could continue across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4-5/Fri-Sat. Guidance
varies, but the overall trend maintains a strong upper ridge over
the Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity through at least the weekend.
Meanwhile, a trough may persist over the Pacific Northwest. Ample
moisture and instability will exist beneath the ridge into the
Dakotas and MN/WI vicinity, though deep-layer flow will weaken some
with time or be shunted northward into Canada. Additional
uncertainty exists due to previous days' storms and subsequent
evolution of those potential MCSs, precluding severe probabilities
at this time.

Additional strong to severe storms could develop across parts of the
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as well. An
upper low over Hudson Bay Friday morning will shift southeast across
the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday morning. The airmass
ahead of this feature should be relatively moist and unstable.
Depending on the evolution of prior days' convection upstream across
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, severe potential could be
increased by any MCVs or remnant outflow that migrates into the
region. Additionally, timing of shortwave impulses as the trough
overspreads the region and the accompanying surface cold front leads
to too much uncertainty to introduce probabilities at this time. 

Beyond Day 5/Sat, guidance varies considerably and confidence in
organized severe convection diminishes rapidly.

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