SPC Jul 17, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains
and Great Lakes region Thursday.

...Northern Plains/Great Lakes...

Mid-level heights are expected to gradually rise across the upper
Midwest during the day2 period as an elongated ridge extending from
the southwestern US into the Carolinas begins to dominate much of
the CONUS. This pattern evolution will force seasonally strong 500mb
flow near the international border from WA/OR into northern MN.
Latest guidance suggests convection will be ongoing at the start of
the day2 period over WI/IL along the nose of a LLJ. This activity
should be a continuation of an overnight complex that forms over the
Plains ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Remnants of this MCS
should propagate downstream during the day and it's not entirely
clear whether it will weaken or regenerate as boundary layer warms.
Have maintained 5% severe probs across portions of the Great Lakes
to account for some early-day threat and perhaps warm-advection
driven convection during the latter half of the period.

Upstream, strong short-wave trough is forecast to eject into eastern
MT by 19/00z with focused zone of ascent expected to translate into
southern SK/northwestern ON in association with exit region of upper
jet. Southern influence of this short wave will flatten the ridge
over ND which should shunt a surface front into the central part of
the state by late afternoon. Strong surface heating across
western/northern ND should lead to weakening inhibition and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening hours. This
activity will propagate toward northwestern MN during the overnight
hours.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Darrow.. 07/17/2019

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