SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday. ...Northern Plains/Great Lakes... Mid-level heights are expected to gradually rise across the upper Midwest during the day2 period as an elongated ridge extending from the southwestern US into the Carolinas begins to dominate much of the CONUS. This pattern evolution will force seasonally strong 500mb flow near the international border from WA/OR into northern MN. Latest guidance suggests convection will be ongoing at the start of the day2 period over WI/IL along the nose of a LLJ. This activity should be a continuation of an overnight complex that forms over the Plains ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Remnants of this MCS should propagate downstream during the day and it's not entirely clear whether it will weaken or regenerate as boundary layer warms. Have maintained 5% severe probs across portions of the Great Lakes to account for some early-day threat and perhaps warm-advection driven convection during the latter half of the period. Upstream, strong short-wave trough is forecast to eject into eastern MT by 19/00z with focused zone of ascent expected to translate into southern SK/northwestern ON in association with exit region of upper jet. Southern influence of this short wave will flatten the ridge over ND which should shunt a surface front into the central part of the state by late afternoon. Strong surface heating across western/northern ND should lead to weakening inhibition and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening hours. This activity will propagate toward northwestern MN during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Darrow.. 07/17/2019
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