SPC Sep 13, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The medium-range models generally indicate that a significant short
wave impulse will emerge from the base of initially amplified
large-scale mid-level troughing, near the Pacific coast at the start
of the period.  It appears probable that this perturbation will
accelerate northeastward across the northern Rockies and Plains, and
north of the international border by Wednesday night, accompanied by
modest surface cyclogenesis from eastern Montana through the Hudson
Bay vicinity.  This seems to provide the primary focus for any
appreciable severe thunderstorm potential across the U.S. during
this period, which could impact areas from the immediate lee of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains Tuesday through Tuesday
night, and portions of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.  However, the
extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, and may
considerably hinge on sub-synoptic developments with low
predictability in this extended forecast time frame.

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