SPC Sep 14, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will linger across northern Ohio into
extreme northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Isolated damaging winds
may be noted for the next few hours.

...OH Valley...

Large-scale height falls are spreading east across ON/QC ahead of a
pronounced mid-level short-wave trough. Southern influence of this
trough is affecting the international border region from northern OH
into upstate NY. Convection that developed ahead of the front over
southeastern lower MI/western OH has shifted downstream, utilizing
an air mass that is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates
with MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. 00z sounding from ILN
supports this along with deep-layer shear of roughly 30kt. Ongoing
activity will soon shift east of instability corridor, and loss of
daytime heating should also serve to negatively influence convective
updrafts. For these reasons will only maintain 5% severe probs for
the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 09/14/2019

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