SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will linger across northern Ohio into extreme northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Isolated damaging winds may be noted for the next few hours. ...OH Valley... Large-scale height falls are spreading east across ON/QC ahead of a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough. Southern influence of this trough is affecting the international border region from northern OH into upstate NY. Convection that developed ahead of the front over southeastern lower MI/western OH has shifted downstream, utilizing an air mass that is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. 00z sounding from ILN supports this along with deep-layer shear of roughly 30kt. Ongoing activity will soon shift east of instability corridor, and loss of daytime heating should also serve to negatively influence convective updrafts. For these reasons will only maintain 5% severe probs for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2019
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