SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and
southern Georgia.

...FL/GA/AL...
Hurricane Sally is moving slowly northeastward over the western tip
of the FL Panhandle.  Local VAD profiles and model guidance show
significant low-level shear and storm-relative helicity are present
in vicinity of the north-south oriented outer bands that are
affecting the central Panhandle.  These bands of convection, along
with the development of other activity will spread into portions of
southwest GA this afternoon.  Given the vertical shear profiles,
rotating storms and supercell structures are expected. The highest
theta-e air mass (mid-upper 70s dewpoints) is restricted to the FL
panhandle, and model guidance does not provide high confidence that
this air will move very far inland into southern GA.  Considered
adding higher tornado probabilities and an ENH risk for a small area
of the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA, but will maintain SLGT
given the latest HREF/HRRR solutions.  The threat will shift
eastward overnight into south-central GA and north FL.

Please refer to mesoscale discussion #1696 for further short-term
details.

..Hart/Lyons.. 09/16/2020

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