SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia. ...FL/GA/AL... Hurricane Sally is moving slowly northeastward over the western tip of the FL Panhandle. Local VAD profiles and model guidance show significant low-level shear and storm-relative helicity are present in vicinity of the north-south oriented outer bands that are affecting the central Panhandle. These bands of convection, along with the development of other activity will spread into portions of southwest GA this afternoon. Given the vertical shear profiles, rotating storms and supercell structures are expected. The highest theta-e air mass (mid-upper 70s dewpoints) is restricted to the FL panhandle, and model guidance does not provide high confidence that this air will move very far inland into southern GA. Considered adding higher tornado probabilities and an ENH risk for a small area of the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA, but will maintain SLGT given the latest HREF/HRRR solutions. The threat will shift eastward overnight into south-central GA and north FL. Please refer to mesoscale discussion #1696 for further short-term details. ..Hart/Lyons.. 09/16/2020
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