SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTER ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and
southern Georgia.

...20Z Update...

...FL/GA/AL...
The center of Tropical Storm Sally is about 25 miles northwest of
Crestview, FL (CEW) and the storm is moving north-northeast at about
5 miles per hour. Only change to the ongoing outlook was to trim the
western edge of the tornado/wind probabilities based on the storm's
recent motion. The environment is expected to remain supportive of
isolated tornadoes throughout the afternoon and evening as the storm
continues slowly north-northeastward. 

Additional short-term details can be found in recently issued
Mesoscale Discussion #1697.

..Mosier.. 09/16/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/

...FL/GA/AL...
Hurricane Sally is moving slowly northeastward over the western tip
of the FL Panhandle.  Local VAD profiles and model guidance show
significant low-level shear and storm-relative helicity are present
in vicinity of the north-south oriented outer bands that are
affecting the central Panhandle.  These bands of convection, along
with the development of other activity will spread into portions of
southwest GA this afternoon.  Given the vertical shear profiles,
rotating storms and supercell structures are expected. The highest
theta-e air mass (mid-upper 70s dewpoints) is restricted to the FL
panhandle, and model guidance does not provide high confidence that
this air will move very far inland into southern GA.  Considered
adding higher tornado probabilities and an ENH risk for a small area
of the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA, but will maintain SLGT
given the latest HREF/HRRR solutions.  The threat will shift
eastward overnight into south-central GA and north FL.

Please refer to mesoscale discussion #1696 for further short-term
details.

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