SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTER ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia. ...20Z Update... ...FL/GA/AL... The center of Tropical Storm Sally is about 25 miles northwest of Crestview, FL (CEW) and the storm is moving north-northeast at about 5 miles per hour. Only change to the ongoing outlook was to trim the western edge of the tornado/wind probabilities based on the storm's recent motion. The environment is expected to remain supportive of isolated tornadoes throughout the afternoon and evening as the storm continues slowly north-northeastward. Additional short-term details can be found in recently issued Mesoscale Discussion #1697. ..Mosier.. 09/16/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ ...FL/GA/AL... Hurricane Sally is moving slowly northeastward over the western tip of the FL Panhandle. Local VAD profiles and model guidance show significant low-level shear and storm-relative helicity are present in vicinity of the north-south oriented outer bands that are affecting the central Panhandle. These bands of convection, along with the development of other activity will spread into portions of southwest GA this afternoon. Given the vertical shear profiles, rotating storms and supercell structures are expected. The highest theta-e air mass (mid-upper 70s dewpoints) is restricted to the FL panhandle, and model guidance does not provide high confidence that this air will move very far inland into southern GA. Considered adding higher tornado probabilities and an ENH risk for a small area of the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA, but will maintain SLGT given the latest HREF/HRRR solutions. The threat will shift eastward overnight into south-central GA and north FL. Please refer to mesoscale discussion #1696 for further short-term details.
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