Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, models depict broad surface ridging as a result of a >1035 hPa surface high in southeastern Canada. The ridging will aid in keeping a relatively dry low-level airmass entrenched across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the western Atlantic keeping appreciable boundary-layer moisture south and east of the U.S. Over time, models gradually intensify a surface low over the southern Gulf of Mexico that will reinforce northerly surface trajectories across east Texas and the northern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will prevent deep moisture from returning inland over the next few days while keeping the severe threat low. Additionally, outside of a mid-level trough traversing the northern Plains in the D5/Sun timeframe, an absence of mid-latitude systems across much of the CONUS should also keep the severe threat relatively low.
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