Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

At the beginning of the forecast period, models depict broad surface
ridging as a result of a >1035 hPa surface high in southeastern
Canada.  The ridging will aid in keeping a relatively dry low-level
airmass entrenched across much of the central and eastern CONUS,
with a front from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the western
Atlantic keeping appreciable boundary-layer moisture south and east
of the U.S.

Over time, models gradually intensify a surface low over the
southern Gulf of Mexico that will reinforce northerly surface
trajectories across east Texas and the northern Gulf of Mexico. 
This pattern will prevent deep moisture from returning inland over
the next few days while keeping the severe threat low. 
Additionally, outside of a mid-level trough traversing the northern
Plains in the D5/Sun timeframe, an absence of mid-latitude systems
across much of the CONUS should also keep the severe threat
relatively low.

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