Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

An upper trough should advance eastward from the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies to the northern/central Plains on Day 4/Friday.
Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of this
feature across parts of the Plains into the Upper Midwest and MS
Valley. Warm mid-level temperatures may keep the warm sector capped
across the Upper Midwest through much of the day Friday, although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be rather strong. Still, elevated
storms with a marginal severe threat may develop Friday night across
a portion of this region as a low-level jet strengthens.

The upper trough should continue eastward in tandem with a surface
cold front this upcoming weekend. However, substantial differences
in medium-range guidance emerge by Day 5/Saturday regarding the
timing/amplitude of this trough, related surface features, and the
degree of low-level moisture return. Depending on the upper trough's
evolution, an isolated/marginal severe risk may exist across parts
of the southern and eastern CONUS from Day 5/Saturday into early
next week. Regardless, far too much uncertainty exists to include
15% severe probabilities at this extended time frame.

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