SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Thursday across parts of Mississippi into southern/central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft is forecast across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, with the faster/more active belt of westerlies to remain over the northern half of the country through the period. Mid-level remnants of tropical system Beta, and a short-wave trough moving across the Great Lakes region, are forecast to gradually merge across the northeastern quarter of the country. Meanwhile, as a short-wave trough moves across the northwestern states and Canadian Rockies, an accompanying westerly mid-level jet will expand across the northwestern and eventually north-central portions of the CONUS. At the surface, the remnant low that was Beta will weaken with time as it crosses Mississippi and later moves into the Tennessee Valley region. Meanwhile, a low over the upper Midwest will likewise weaken with time, as a cold front crosses the northwestern quarter of the country and eventually shifts into the Dakotas/Nebraska overnight. ...Parts of Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle... Though remnant tropical system Beta is expected to continue weakening as it shifts slowly northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states, southerly winds ahead of the system will advect rich Gulf moisture northward into this area. Despite the moist low levels, any diurnal heating will be at least partially offset by weak lapse rates aloft, thus yielding only modest CAPE. Still, given veering flow with height east and southeast of the remnant low, shear may be sufficient to support a couple of stronger storms, and associated/low-probability potential for locally gusty winds -- and possibly a brief tornado or two -- mainly during the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 09/23/2020
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