SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Thursday across parts of
Mississippi into southern/central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be the main
threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft is forecast across the southern half of the U.S.
Thursday, with the faster/more active belt of westerlies to remain
over the northern half of the country through the period.

Mid-level remnants of tropical system Beta, and a short-wave trough
moving across the Great Lakes region, are forecast to gradually
merge across the northeastern quarter of the country.  Meanwhile, as
a short-wave trough moves across the northwestern states and
Canadian Rockies, an accompanying westerly mid-level jet will expand
across the northwestern and eventually north-central portions of the
CONUS.

At the surface, the remnant low that was Beta will weaken with time
as it crosses Mississippi and later moves into the Tennessee Valley
region.  Meanwhile, a low over the upper Midwest will likewise
weaken with time, as a cold front crosses the northwestern quarter
of the country and eventually shifts into the Dakotas/Nebraska
overnight.

...Parts of Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle...
Though remnant tropical system Beta is expected to continue
weakening as it shifts slowly northeastward across the central Gulf
Coast states, southerly winds ahead of the system will advect rich
Gulf moisture northward into this area.  Despite the moist low
levels, any diurnal heating will be at least partially offset by
weak lapse rates aloft, thus yielding only modest CAPE.  Still,
given veering flow with height east and southeast of the remnant
low, shear may be sufficient to support a couple of stronger storms,
and associated/low-probability potential for locally gusty winds --
and possibly a brief tornado or two -- mainly during the first half
of the period.

..Goss.. 09/23/2020

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