Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that
large-scale upper troughing will develop and subsequently amplify
over the eastern CONUS this upcoming weekend into early next week.
Meanwhile, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely develop over
the western states in the same time frame. A surface cold front
associated with the upper trough is forecast to move across parts of
the Midwest, OH Valley, and Northeast from Day 4/Saturday through
Day 6/Monday. Although mid-level flow should be quite strong as the
frontal passage occurs, low-level moisture and related instability
are forecast to remain rather limited. This casts uncertainty on
whether any meaningful severe risk will develop across these
regions. A reinforcing cold front attendant to another, stronger
surface low may move across much of the central/eastern CONUS in the
Day 6/Monday to Day 8/Wednesday time frame. Deep-layer shear should
be strong as this second front progresses east-southeastward.
However, instability may once again be fairly weak. Too much
uncertainty exists regarding the both degree of instability and
robust storm development with either cold front passage to include
any 15% severe areas at this time.

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