SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND LOWER MO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening across northern portions of the southern
Plains and adjacent Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
Overall upper pattern is expected to amplify significantly on Sunday
as troughing deepens across the central CONUS and ridging builds
over the western CONUS. The central CONUS deepening will be induced
primarily by the progression of a strong shortwave trough from the
northern Rockies into the central Plains. A cold front will begin
the period extending southwestward from a low over south-central
Ontario to another low in the central TX Panhandle.  
Evolution of the previously mentioned shortwave trough (and
accompanying cold air in its wake) will result in the
southward/southeastward surge of this front, taking it through the
mid MS Valley and majority of the southern Plains by early Monday
morning. 

Elsewhere, a weak upper low is forecast to be centered over the
Mid-South early Sunday. This low is expected to transition to an
open wave while accelerating northeastward over the Southeast and TN
Valley ahead of amplifying upper trough over the Plains. 

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau and Lower MO Valley...
A warm and seasonally moist air mass is expected to be in place
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. These warm
and moist low-levels beneath steep mid-level lapse rates favor
strong buoyancy. However, warm mid-level temperatures and resulting
convective inhibition introduce uncertainty regarding convective
initiation within the open warm sector ahead the front. A more
likely scenario is for storms to develop along the front, with the
progressive, fast-moving character of the front then quickly
undercutting any updrafts. Strengthening low-level southerly flow
ahead of the front could also lead to additional post-frontal
development. 

All of these factors point to predominantly elevated storms. The
vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support rotation
within the more robust updrafts, with an attendant threat for
isolated severe hail. Given the strength of the low-level flow along
and behind the front, convectively augmented downdrafts could be
strong enough to result in a damaging wind gust or two.

...Southeast GA into Northern FL...
Shortwave trough moving quickly across the Southeast and TN Valley
is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms across portions of
AL, GA, and northern FL. Enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base
of this shortwave could result in a few more organized storms  and
the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty
regarding the speed and strength of the shortwave as well as the
degree of air mass destabilization results in too much uncertainty
to introduce any probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 09/26/2020

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