SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening across northern portions of the southern Plains and adjacent Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... Overall upper pattern is expected to amplify significantly on Sunday as troughing deepens across the central CONUS and ridging builds over the western CONUS. The central CONUS deepening will be induced primarily by the progression of a strong shortwave trough from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. A cold front will begin the period extending southwestward from a low over south-central Ontario to another low in the central TX Panhandle. Evolution of the previously mentioned shortwave trough (and accompanying cold air in its wake) will result in the southward/southeastward surge of this front, taking it through the mid MS Valley and majority of the southern Plains by early Monday morning. Elsewhere, a weak upper low is forecast to be centered over the Mid-South early Sunday. This low is expected to transition to an open wave while accelerating northeastward over the Southeast and TN Valley ahead of amplifying upper trough over the Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau and Lower MO Valley... A warm and seasonally moist air mass is expected to be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. These warm and moist low-levels beneath steep mid-level lapse rates favor strong buoyancy. However, warm mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation within the open warm sector ahead the front. A more likely scenario is for storms to develop along the front, with the progressive, fast-moving character of the front then quickly undercutting any updrafts. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of the front could also lead to additional post-frontal development. All of these factors point to predominantly elevated storms. The vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support rotation within the more robust updrafts, with an attendant threat for isolated severe hail. Given the strength of the low-level flow along and behind the front, convectively augmented downdrafts could be strong enough to result in a damaging wind gust or two. ...Southeast GA into Northern FL... Shortwave trough moving quickly across the Southeast and TN Valley is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. Enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this shortwave could result in a few more organized storms and the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding the speed and strength of the shortwave as well as the degree of air mass destabilization results in too much uncertainty to introduce any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 09/26/2020
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