SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front as it moves across the
southern Plains and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Upper pattern will continue to amplify on Monday as troughing across
the central and eastern CONUS deepens further while gradually moving
eastward and western CONUS ridging also expands eastward. Strong
mid-level flow is forecast to exist throughout the base of this
trough, arcing from the High Plains southward into the southern
Plains and then back northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes. 

Cold front along the leading edge of the continental air mass
associated with the upper trough will likely extend from
southwestern Ontario southwestward into the TX Hill Country early
Monday morning. Continued eastward/southeastward progression of this
front is forecast throughout the day, with the front expected to
extend from a low over the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward
into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.  

...Mid/Upper OH Valley...
Modest low-level moisture and deep southwesterly flow may contribute
to a few more robust updrafts near the cold front as it gradually
pushes eastward across the region. However, low forecast confidence
regarding the frontal position, as well as the potential for
preceding cloud cover to limit the extent of destabilization ahead
of the front, result in too much uncertainty to introduce any
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 09/26/2020

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