Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most recent medium-range model guidance is in relatively good agreement that a dry continental air mass will cover much of the CONUS early D4/Tuesday. A cold front will extent along the eastern edge of this air mass, likely stretching from a low from western Quebec southwestward along the Appalachians into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of this front as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day D4/Tuesday. Deep southwesterly flow will result in moderate vertical shear, resulting in the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts. However, limited destabilization is currently expected to keep the overall severe coverage low, precluding the need to outlook any areas. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the potential development of an upper low over the Southeast on D5/Wednesday. The eastward progression of this low (and evolution of an attendant surface low) could contribute to severe potential across the Carolinas. However, more consistency within the guidance is still needed for greater overall forecast confidence. From D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, dry and stable conditions are currently forecast for the majority of the CONUS.
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