Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most recent medium-range model guidance is in relatively good
agreement that a dry continental air mass will cover much of the
CONUS early D4/Tuesday. A cold front will extent along the eastern
edge of this air mass, likely stretching from a low from western
Quebec southwestward along the Appalachians into the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of this
front as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day D4/Tuesday.
Deep southwesterly flow will result in moderate vertical shear,
resulting in the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts.
However, limited destabilization is currently expected to keep the
overall severe coverage low, precluding the need to outlook any
areas.

00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the potential
development of an upper low over the Southeast on D5/Wednesday. The
eastward progression of this low (and evolution of an attendant
surface low) could contribute to severe potential across the
Carolinas. However, more consistency within the guidance is still
needed for greater overall forecast confidence.  

From D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, dry and stable conditions are
currently forecast for the majority of the CONUS.

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