SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible along a cold front as it moves across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper trough is expected to be in place over the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning before progressing eastward and deepening throughout the day. Two distinct circulations will be embedded within this upper troughing, one which will gradually move east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and one which move southward through the mid MS Valley towards the Mid-South. Farther west, upper ridging over the western CONUS is forecast to build eastward in the wake of the upper trough, extending from the Pacific Northwest into central Mexico by the end of the period. At the surface, cold front along the leading edge of the continental air mass (associated with the upper trough) will likely extend from southwestern Ontario southwestward into the TX Hill Country early Monday morning. Continued eastward/southeastward progression of this front is forecast throughout the day, with the front expected to extend from a low over the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated late Monday night/early Tuesday morning along the portion of front across the Southeast, induced by lift attendant to previously mentioned embedded upper low. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the length of the front, with predominantly anafrontal character to the storms. The only exception is across the middle and upper OH Valley, where strong flow aloft is expected to more closely align with the surface front. As a result, the potential for a few strong, convectively augmented gusts exists along the front. Abundant cloud cover and limited buoyancy is currently expected, precluding a more widespread damaging wind gust potential. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2020
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