SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
along a cold front as it moves across the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper trough is expected to be in place over the central and
eastern CONUS early Monday morning before progressing eastward and
deepening throughout the day. Two distinct circulations will be
embedded within this upper troughing, one which will gradually move
east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and one which move
southward through the mid MS Valley towards the Mid-South. Farther
west, upper ridging over the western CONUS is forecast to build
eastward in the wake of the upper trough, extending from the Pacific
Northwest into central Mexico by the end of the period.

At the surface, cold front along the leading edge of the continental
air mass (associated with the upper trough) will likely extend from
southwestern Ontario southwestward into the TX Hill Country early
Monday morning. Continued eastward/southeastward progression of this
front is forecast throughout the day, with the front expected to
extend from a low over the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward
into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. Surface
cyclogenesis is anticipated late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
along the portion of front across the Southeast, induced by lift
attendant to previously mentioned embedded upper low.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the length of the
front, with predominantly anafrontal character to the storms. The
only exception is across the middle and upper OH Valley, where 
strong flow aloft is expected to more closely align with the surface
front. As a result, the potential for a few strong, convectively
augmented gusts exists along the front. Abundant cloud cover and
limited buoyancy is currently expected, precluding a more widespread
damaging wind gust potential.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2020

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