SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States on Monday.

A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from Quebec into the Lower
MS Valley early Tuesday morning. An upper low embedded within this
larger trough is expected to gradually move from the middle MS
Valley southeastward through the Southeast. Southerly mid-level flow
will increase ahead of this low from GA through the Mid-Atlantic.
Progression of this upper low will aid in the development of a
modest surface low along a front initially extending from the
Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the central FL Panhandle. This
surface low will likely track northeastward along the front while
the front gradually moves eastward. Some deepening of this surface
low is possible, resulting in modest moisture advection amid
southerly/southeasterly surface wind.

This overall pattern evolution will place a modestly moist and
unstable air mass across the Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the
approaching cold front (and parent upper trough). Previously
mentioned strengthening low to mid-level winds ahead of the
approaching upper low atop modest southerly/southeasterly surface
winds will contribute to at least moderate vertical shear. While
some uncertainties remain, including the amount of destabilization
as well as the strength of the surface low and frontal position, the
environment appears likely to support at least low severe potential.
Refinement to this outlook area are likely in subsequent forecasts.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2020

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