SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of mainly isolated strong to damaging wind gusts are possible along a cold front from a portion of the Ohio Valley into the Southeastern States Monday. ...Southeastern States through the Ohio Valley... Upper trough will undergo further amplification across the Plains and Mississippi Valley region Monday and eventually the OH Valley and Southeastern States Monday night. An embedded shortwave trough will pivot northward through upper low circulation resulting in the development of a surface low across the Great Lakes Monday evening. Cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into western TN and south TX will move eastward and likely extend from central NY into the FL Panhandle by 12Z Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the expanse of the cold front from the Great Lakes southward into a portion of the lower MS Valley. Boundary layer dewpoints in pre-frontal warm sector will range from the upper 60s to low 70s F in the Southeast States to the low 60s farther north into the OH Valley. This will result in a range of MLCAPE from up to 500 J/kg across the OH Valley and up to 1500 J/kg in the Southeast but with weak mid-level lapse rates. Some destabilization of the surface layer will be possible during the day, and storms may undergo modest intensification along portions of the front. The strongest wind profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk shear will exist across the OH Valley, and 30-40 kt within frontal zone over the southern states. Mixed storm modes including a few semi-organized structures will be possible with damaging wind the primary threat during the day and into the early evening. Overall severe threat should remain limited by a marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Dial.. 09/27/2020
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