SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of mainly isolated strong to damaging wind
gusts are possible along a cold front from a portion of the Ohio
Valley into the Southeastern States Monday.

...Southeastern States through the Ohio Valley...

Upper trough will undergo further amplification across the Plains
and Mississippi Valley region Monday and eventually the OH Valley
and Southeastern States Monday night. An embedded shortwave trough
will pivot northward through upper low circulation resulting in the
development of a surface low across the Great Lakes Monday evening.
Cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into
western TN and south TX will move eastward and likely extend from
central NY into the FL Panhandle by 12Z Tuesday. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the
expanse of the cold front from the Great Lakes southward into a
portion of the lower MS Valley. Boundary layer dewpoints in
pre-frontal warm sector will range from the upper 60s to low 70s F
in the Southeast States to the low 60s farther north into the OH
Valley. This will result in a range of MLCAPE from up to 500 J/kg
across the OH Valley and up to 1500 J/kg in the Southeast but with
weak mid-level lapse rates. Some destabilization of the surface
layer will be possible during the day, and storms may undergo modest
intensification along portions of the front. The strongest wind
profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk shear will exist across the OH
Valley, and 30-40 kt within frontal zone over the southern states.
Mixed storm modes including a few semi-organized structures will be
possible with damaging wind the primary threat during the day and
into the early evening. Overall severe threat should remain limited
by a marginal thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 09/27/2020

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