SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing marginal hail and/or wind remain possible across parts of the south-central states this evening and into the overnight hours. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and Arklatex... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near and in the wake of a strong/southeastward-surging cold front, from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into the Midwest. The strongest convection is ongoing from the Ozarks portion of the area and southwestward, in the vicinity of the advancing front. While a moist warm sector precedes the front, the boundary layer remains capped. As a result, storm development has been confined to the immediate frontal zone and into the cool sector, where large-scale ascent is maximized. Though storms have remained generally weak, ample shear persists -- aided by moderate westerly mid-level flow. This, combined with ample instability above the capping layer, suggests that potential persists for a few stronger storms to evolve this evening and into the overnight hours. Marginal hail and locally gusty winds will be possible with the more robust storms, with risk shifting southeastward with time in tandem with frontal progression. ..Goss.. 09/28/2020
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