SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon and
evening from Ohio to near the north central Gulf coast.

...OH to the north central Gulf coast this afternoon/evening...
Within a large-scale trough over the Plains/MS Valley, an initial
mid-upper speed max will rotate north-northeastward from the mid MS
Valley toward Lake Huron, and an upstream shortwave trough will dig
southeastward from the central High Plains toward the Ark-La-Tex. 
Cyclogenesis is expected today into tonight with the initial speed
max from the Lake Huron vicinity northward into ON/QC. The trailing
cold front will continue to move southeastward across the OH/lower
MS Valleys and the northwest Gulf coast.  Poor midlevel lapse rates
are expected within the majority of the warm sector, and the richer
low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s)
will be confined to the Gulf coast.  Thus, buoyancy will be rather
shallow and limited in magnitude farther north in the OH Valley
(MLCAPE 
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