SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from Ohio to near the north central Gulf coast. ...OH to the north central Gulf coast this afternoon/evening... Within a large-scale trough over the Plains/MS Valley, an initial mid-upper speed max will rotate north-northeastward from the mid MS Valley toward Lake Huron, and an upstream shortwave trough will dig southeastward from the central High Plains toward the Ark-La-Tex. Cyclogenesis is expected today into tonight with the initial speed max from the Lake Huron vicinity northward into ON/QC. The trailing cold front will continue to move southeastward across the OH/lower MS Valleys and the northwest Gulf coast. Poor midlevel lapse rates are expected within the majority of the warm sector, and the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) will be confined to the Gulf coast. Thus, buoyancy will be rather shallow and limited in magnitude farther north in the OH Valley (MLCAPE Read more
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