SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OH TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible, mainly during
the late afternoon to early evening, from Ohio to the central Gulf
coast.

...OH to the central Gulf coast...
Within a large-scale trough over the Great Plains/MS Valley, an
initial mid-upper speed max will rotate north-northeast from IL/IN
into southern Ontario. Pronounced cyclogenesis is expected through
tonight from the Lake Huron vicinity north towards James Bay. The
trailing cold front will continue to move east across the OH Valley
to central Gulf Coast regions. Poor mid-level lapse rates are
expected within the majority of the warm sector, and the richer
low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s)
will be confined to the Gulf Coast. Thus, buoyancy will be rather
shallow and limited in magnitude to the north in the OH Valley
(MLCAPE 
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