SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible this afternoon into the early evening from a portion of the Gulf coastal states into Ohio. ...Gulf coastal states through eastern Ohio... Recent radar trends show an increase in thunderstorm intensity along a portion of the front primarily from the Gulf coastal states into middle Tennessee where instability is a bit stronger than farther north across the OH Valley. Destabilization of the surface layer has occurred in pre-frontal warm sector, and vertical wind profiles in vicinity of the cold front are marginally sufficient for storm organization over the Gulf Coast states. Farther north into the OH Valley, wind profiles are more favorable for organized storms, but the thermodynamic environment is very marginal and will remain a limiting factor. Will maintain MRGL risk category for this update with primary threat being isolated strong wind gusts. See SWOMCD 1722 for more information. ..Dial.. 09/28/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ ...OH to the central Gulf coast... Within a large-scale trough over the Great Plains/MS Valley, an initial mid-upper speed max will rotate north-northeast from IL/IN into southern Ontario. Pronounced cyclogenesis is expected through tonight from the Lake Huron vicinity north towards James Bay. The trailing cold front will continue to move east across the OH Valley to central Gulf Coast regions. Poor mid-level lapse rates are expected within the majority of the warm sector, and the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) will be confined to the Gulf Coast. Thus, buoyancy will be rather shallow and limited in magnitude to the north in the OH Valley (MLCAPE Read more
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