SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will persist over much of the CONUS east
of the Rockies on Wednesday. A shortwave trough embedded within this
larger-scale system is forecast to extend from the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity into FL early Wednesday, and lift northeastward through the
period. A surface cold front attendant to a low over New England and
Quebec will extend from VT/NH into eastern MA/CT southward to the
offshore waters along the Atlantic coast before intersecting
southern FL. Moist and unstable conditions could result in isolated
thunderstorms across southern FL, though weak shear and poor
midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A
couple of thunderstorms may be ongoing near Cape Cod for an hour or
two at the very start of the period, but the cold front will quickly
shift east and push any activity offshore.

Otherwise, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel
lapse rates across the Great Lakes region, promoting weak
destabilization during the afternoon/early evening. Weak
instability, combined with moderate to strong mid/upper flow and
forcing for ascent streaming across the region as the upper trough
pivots eastward, could result in a few weak thunderstorms from the
Lake Michigan vicinity eastward to western NY.

..Leitman.. 09/29/2020

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