SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


A few strong thunderstorms are possible across northern portions of
the southern Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of shortwave troughs will likely be moving through the
southwestern periphery of the expansive upper trough over the
central and eastern CONUS early Saturday morning. The lead wave will
be over the mid MS Valley and is forecast to quickly lose amplitude
as it moves eastward across the OH Valley. The second shortwave will
likely be over the central Plains early Saturday and is expected to
move southeastward across the Lower MO Valley and into the TN Valley
throughout the day. 

Progression of these shortwaves will help push a cold front
southward through much of the southern Plains by early Sunday
morning. Modest low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of
this cold front, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching into northern
portions of the southern Plains. This moisture advection combined
with boundary layer mixing and steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in modest instability and the potential for thunderstorms
along the front across OK and adjacent portions of western AR and TX
Red River vicinity. This region will be on the edge of the stronger
flow aloft, resulting in moderate vertical shear supportive of a few
stronger storms. However, modest instability is currently expected
to limit overall severe thunderstorm coverage.

..Mosier.. 10/01/2020

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