SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across northern portions of the southern Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs will likely be moving through the southwestern periphery of the expansive upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS early Saturday morning. The lead wave will be over the mid MS Valley and is forecast to quickly lose amplitude as it moves eastward across the OH Valley. The second shortwave will likely be over the central Plains early Saturday and is expected to move southeastward across the Lower MO Valley and into the TN Valley throughout the day. Progression of these shortwaves will help push a cold front southward through much of the southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Modest low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of this cold front, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching into northern portions of the southern Plains. This moisture advection combined with boundary layer mixing and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest instability and the potential for thunderstorms along the front across OK and adjacent portions of western AR and TX Red River vicinity. This region will be on the edge of the stronger flow aloft, resulting in moderate vertical shear supportive of a few stronger storms. However, modest instability is currently expected to limit overall severe thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 10/01/2020
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