SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern is expected to remain unfavorable for
thunderstorms across much of the CONUS during the day2 period, with
the exceptions of south Florida and in the lee of the lower Great
Lakes.

Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the western US
through this weekend which will ensure troughing east of the
Rockies. One significant short-wave trough will rotate across the
upper OH Valley into New England Friday afternoon. Lowering
heights/cooling mid-level temperatures will become increasingly
favorable for weak convection across Lake Ontario extending into
northern portions of NY. While most convection will struggle to
attain heights necessary for lightning, isolated thunderstorms are
expected with the strongest updrafts.

Farther south across the southern FL Peninsula, a prolonged corridor
of low-level confluence is expected to remain focused across the FL
Straits/south FL. Poor lapse rates, but very moist, and adequately
buoyant, profiles suggest some thunderstorm threat across this
region through the period.

..Darrow.. 10/01/2020

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