SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern is expected to remain unfavorable for thunderstorms across much of the CONUS during the day2 period, with the exceptions of south Florida and in the lee of the lower Great Lakes. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the western US through this weekend which will ensure troughing east of the Rockies. One significant short-wave trough will rotate across the upper OH Valley into New England Friday afternoon. Lowering heights/cooling mid-level temperatures will become increasingly favorable for weak convection across Lake Ontario extending into northern portions of NY. While most convection will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning, isolated thunderstorms are expected with the strongest updrafts. Farther south across the southern FL Peninsula, a prolonged corridor of low-level confluence is expected to remain focused across the FL Straits/south FL. Poor lapse rates, but very moist, and adequately buoyant, profiles suggest some thunderstorm threat across this region through the period. ..Darrow.. 10/01/2020
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