SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...

Earlier thoughts regarding convective potential across the lower
Great Lakes/OH Valley, and south FL remain.

Partial breaks in cloud cover have contributed to weak buoyancy
across the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley region. Back edge of deeper
convection is associated with the mid-level vort over southern lower
MI. As this feature shifts east the threat for lightning should
decrease. Have adjusted the 10% thunder line over lower MI to
account for this movement.

Otherwise, no appreciable changes are warranted.

..Darrow.. 10/01/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020/

...Discussion...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are expected to mainly exist this
afternoon in association with a mid-level impulse over southwest
Lower MI shifting east towards the Lower Great Lakes. The risk for
waterspouts may continue across portions of Lake Erie and Michigan. 

Otherwise, a maritime tropical air mass and weak shear environment
will persist south of a stalled front across south FL. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible through the period, though storms
should be somewhat more concentrated this afternoon along the sea
breeze across southeast FL.

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