SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding convective potential across the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley, and south FL remain. Partial breaks in cloud cover have contributed to weak buoyancy across the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley region. Back edge of deeper convection is associated with the mid-level vort over southern lower MI. As this feature shifts east the threat for lightning should decrease. Have adjusted the 10% thunder line over lower MI to account for this movement. Otherwise, no appreciable changes are warranted. ..Darrow.. 10/01/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020/ ...Discussion... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are expected to mainly exist this afternoon in association with a mid-level impulse over southwest Lower MI shifting east towards the Lower Great Lakes. The risk for waterspouts may continue across portions of Lake Erie and Michigan. Otherwise, a maritime tropical air mass and weak shear environment will persist south of a stalled front across south FL. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the period, though storms should be somewhat more concentrated this afternoon along the sea breeze across southeast FL.
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