SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

An initially amplified mid/upper flow regime across much of North
America may begin to transition toward a more zonal regime during
this period.  Models indicate that at least a couple of significant
short wave troughs emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
will progress inland and flatten Pacific Northwest/western Canadian
Ridging.  As this occurs, and subtropical ridging builds across
parts of the Caribbean and Bahamas into south Atlantic coastal
areas, troughing east of the Rockies into the Atlantic Seaboard is
forecast to remain amplified.  However, it may sharpen, with a
number of embedded short wave perturbations consolidating while
digging into the Upper Midwest/lower Missouri Valley region by late
Saturday night.  

In response to these developments, relatively cool/dry and stable
conditions across most areas east of the Rockies likely will be
maintained, and reinforced by another cool intrusion across the
central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the lower Ohio
Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern Great Plains Saturday through
Saturday night.

Seasonably moist conditions will be largely confined along and above
a lingering, weakening lead frontal zone, initially across the
southern Florida Peninsula into southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Across
much of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula,
further moistening will occur above the remnant front, with
appreciable boundary-layer moistening mostly near/east of the
Florida Atlantic coast.  Associated instability probably will be
accompanied by a risk for scattered thunderstorm activity, however
this potential inland of immediate Florida coastal areas remains
unclear at this time.

There may be modest low-level moistening across south central
portions of the Great Plains, toward the lower Ohio Valley.  While
models indicate that a plume of relatively warm air aloft will tend
to cap the environment ahead of the secondary frontal surge,
moisture return, lift and destabilization to the cool side of the
front may become supportive of at least scattered thunderstorm
activity Saturday through Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2020

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