SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An initially amplified mid/upper flow regime across much of North America may begin to transition toward a more zonal regime during this period. Models indicate that at least a couple of significant short wave troughs emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will progress inland and flatten Pacific Northwest/western Canadian Ridging. As this occurs, and subtropical ridging builds across parts of the Caribbean and Bahamas into south Atlantic coastal areas, troughing east of the Rockies into the Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to remain amplified. However, it may sharpen, with a number of embedded short wave perturbations consolidating while digging into the Upper Midwest/lower Missouri Valley region by late Saturday night. In response to these developments, relatively cool/dry and stable conditions across most areas east of the Rockies likely will be maintained, and reinforced by another cool intrusion across the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night. Seasonably moist conditions will be largely confined along and above a lingering, weakening lead frontal zone, initially across the southern Florida Peninsula into southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Across much of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula, further moistening will occur above the remnant front, with appreciable boundary-layer moistening mostly near/east of the Florida Atlantic coast. Associated instability probably will be accompanied by a risk for scattered thunderstorm activity, however this potential inland of immediate Florida coastal areas remains unclear at this time. There may be modest low-level moistening across south central portions of the Great Plains, toward the lower Ohio Valley. While models indicate that a plume of relatively warm air aloft will tend to cap the environment ahead of the secondary frontal surge, moisture return, lift and destabilization to the cool side of the front may become supportive of at least scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday through Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 10/02/2020
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