SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...Discussion...

Upper ridge will hold over the southwestern US while troughing
remains the predominant feature east of the Rockies. As a result,
higher-quality moisture/buoyancy have been shunted into the
southeast Gulf basin, extending across the FL Peninsula. While lapse
rates will remain poor across this region, an elongated corridor of
low-level confluence will persist across the southern Peninsula
which will likely focus convection through the period.

Farther west, a secondary mid-level short-wave trough will dig
southeast across the Great Plains to a position from eastern
KS/central OK by 04/06z. This feature will encourage weak convection
along/just north of a surface front as it sags southeast across
KS/OK into MO/AR region. A narrow zone of stronger boundary-layer
heating should be noted ahead of the front from northwest TX into
south-central OK. While low-level lapse rates will steepen along
this corridor, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures
may not be breached. For this reason, frontal lift should result in
more elevated updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2020

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