SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.


Upper ridge will hold over the southwestern US while troughing
remains the predominant feature east of the Rockies. As a result,
higher-quality moisture/buoyancy have been shunted into the
southeast Gulf basin, extending across the FL Peninsula. While lapse
rates will remain poor across this region, an elongated corridor of
low-level confluence will persist across the southern Peninsula
which will likely focus convection through the period.

Farther west, a secondary mid-level short-wave trough will dig
southeast across the Great Plains to a position from eastern
KS/central OK by 04/06z. This feature will encourage weak convection
along/just north of a surface front as it sags southeast across
KS/OK into MO/AR region. A narrow zone of stronger boundary-layer
heating should be noted ahead of the front from northwest TX into
south-central OK. While low-level lapse rates will steepen along
this corridor, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures
may not be breached. For this reason, frontal lift should result in
more elevated updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2020

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