SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday. ...Discussion... Upper ridge will hold over the southwestern US while troughing remains the predominant feature east of the Rockies. As a result, higher-quality moisture/buoyancy have been shunted into the southeast Gulf basin, extending across the FL Peninsula. While lapse rates will remain poor across this region, an elongated corridor of low-level confluence will persist across the southern Peninsula which will likely focus convection through the period. Farther west, a secondary mid-level short-wave trough will dig southeast across the Great Plains to a position from eastern KS/central OK by 04/06z. This feature will encourage weak convection along/just north of a surface front as it sags southeast across KS/OK into MO/AR region. A narrow zone of stronger boundary-layer heating should be noted ahead of the front from northwest TX into south-central OK. While low-level lapse rates will steepen along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures may not be breached. For this reason, frontal lift should result in more elevated updrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/02/2020
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