SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today/tonight. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper flow field is expected over the western U.S. today, as a positively tilted short-wave trough crossing the northeastern Pacific begins moving into western Canada, and approaches the Pacific Northwest late. This will result in a flattening of the western ridge with time. However, the large/longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will remain firmly in place through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies, though a weak cool front will shift southeastward across the southern Plains/Ozarks. This frontal advance will occur in tandem with a mid-level short-wave disturbance digging southward on the rear side of the main/longwave trough. As this mid-level disturbance shifts southeastward, low-level warm advection beneath steep mid-level lapse rates may result in elevated/high-based showers -- and possibly a few lightning strikes. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible across south Florida and the Keys, as the baroclinic zone between the cooler continental airmass and the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean airmass drifts a bit northward across south Florida with time. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/03/2020
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