SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today/tonight.

...Synopsis...
Some deamplification of the upper flow field is expected over the
western U.S. today, as a positively tilted short-wave trough
crossing the northeastern Pacific begins moving into western Canada,
and approaches the Pacific Northwest late.  This will result in a
flattening of the western ridge with time.  However, the
large/longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will remain firmly in
place through the period.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies,
though a weak cool front will shift southeastward across the
southern Plains/Ozarks.  This frontal advance will occur in tandem
with a mid-level short-wave disturbance digging southward on the
rear side of the main/longwave trough. 

As this mid-level disturbance shifts southeastward, low-level warm
advection beneath steep mid-level lapse rates may result in
elevated/high-based showers -- and possibly a few lightning strikes.

Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible
across south Florida and the Keys, as the baroclinic zone between
the cooler continental airmass and the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean
airmass drifts a bit northward across south Florida with time.

..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/03/2020

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