SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that broad mid-level ridging within the mid-latitude
westerlies will develop inland of the Pacific coast, across and east
of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies during this period.
Downstream flow across much of the remainder of the northern and
central tier of the U.S. appears likely to remain more or less
zonal, with a number of embedded, progressive short wave troughs. 
This includes one significant perturbation forecast to accelerate
east of the northern Mid Atlantic coast, and support further surface
wave development along a front across the western Atlantic.  

In the wake of these features, mid-level subtropical ridging may
become a bit more prominent across Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico.  In lower levels, models suggest that the surface frontal
zone will weaken and redevelop northward across the Peninsula into
northern Florida.  As the boundary layer continues to moisten,
destabilization aided by daytime heating across parts of the
Peninsula may contribute to at least some potential for a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail, with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020

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