SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today nor tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Mean ridging in the West, and troughing in the East, will continue
to dominate the CONUS upper-air pattern through this period. A
series of somewhat closely spaced shortwaves -- now located across
the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest -- will dig into the
mean trough position from the upper Great Lakes to the lower
Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf, sharpening the cyclonic
curvature of the basal height/flow field through tonight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across
south FL, extending east-northeastward over the northern Bahamas and
west-southwestward across the southeastern Gulf.  This boundary --
both surface and in low levels through around 850 mb -- should drift
northward through the period and become more shallow in vertical
slope.  Episodic, patchy areas of convection, with occasional
embedded thunderstorms, will occur in the low-level frontal zone and
southward through the Straits.

Elsewhere, a low was drawn between FRI-BIE, with weak cold front
southwestward across northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle and
northeastern NM.  The low should move to south-central/central MO by
00Z, with front across southeastern/south-central OK, west-central
TX and southeastern NM.  By 12Z the front should reach southern IL,
central AR, and portions of central/southwest TX.  Moisture return
ahead of this front will be meager, with surface dew points
generally 40s to low 50s F, and an EML evident in the 12Z MAF RAOB
advecting over the region to cap the prefrontal warm sector. 
Isolated thunder may occur in elevated convection today over MO
under cooler air aloft, northeast of the EML, and/or this evening
through tonight from the Ozarks to the Red River region.

..Edwards.. 10/03/2020

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