SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today nor tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mean ridging in the West, and troughing in the East, will continue to dominate the CONUS upper-air pattern through this period. A series of somewhat closely spaced shortwaves -- now located across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest -- will dig into the mean trough position from the upper Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf, sharpening the cyclonic curvature of the basal height/flow field through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across south FL, extending east-northeastward over the northern Bahamas and west-southwestward across the southeastern Gulf. This boundary -- both surface and in low levels through around 850 mb -- should drift northward through the period and become more shallow in vertical slope. Episodic, patchy areas of convection, with occasional embedded thunderstorms, will occur in the low-level frontal zone and southward through the Straits. Elsewhere, a low was drawn between FRI-BIE, with weak cold front southwestward across northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle and northeastern NM. The low should move to south-central/central MO by 00Z, with front across southeastern/south-central OK, west-central TX and southeastern NM. By 12Z the front should reach southern IL, central AR, and portions of central/southwest TX. Moisture return ahead of this front will be meager, with surface dew points generally 40s to low 50s F, and an EML evident in the 12Z MAF RAOB advecting over the region to cap the prefrontal warm sector. Isolated thunder may occur in elevated convection today over MO under cooler air aloft, northeast of the EML, and/or this evening through tonight from the Ozarks to the Red River region. ..Edwards.. 10/03/2020
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