SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley will
develop east/northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from lower MI
southwestward into central TX during the morning hours. The front
will progress eastward across much of the eastern U.S. by Monday
morning. A dearth of low level moisture will limit thunderstorm
activity, though a lightning flash or two is possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley where cold temperatures aloft will result in
steep lapse rates amid shallow convection. However, coverage is
expected to be sparse and less than 10%. Greater thunderstorm
coverage is possible further southeast across the central/southern
FL Peninsula where deeper boundary layer moisture and warmer
temperatures will allow for greater destabilization ahead of the
surface front. Additional isolated thunderstorms also are possible
near the NC Outer Banks.

Warm and dry conditions will continue across the western states as a
strong upper level ridge persists.

..Leitman.. 10/03/2020

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