Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

Medium-range models continue to indicate that initially broad
large-scale ridging, across the northern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific into western Northern America, may undergo amplification
while shifting eastward during the early to middle portion of the
coming work week.  As this occurs, a significant short wave impulse,
digging within increasingly northwesterly flow to its east, appears
likely to contribute to substantive trough amplification along a
negatively tilted axis from the Hudson Bay vicinity into the western
Atlantic by late next week.  This probably will be accompanied by
another substantive cold intrusion across the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, and a building surface ridge beneath increasingly
confluent mid-level flow, east of the Mississippi Valley and across
much of the Gulf Coast states.  This should maintain/reinforce
generally dry and stable boundary-layer conditions across all but
the Florida Peninsula.  Even if trends depicted in the latest
(03/00Z) ECMWF (which include the faster inland progression of a
significant mid-level trough on the leading edge of a strong zonal
flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, and deeper surface
troughing across the higher plains by early next weekend) are
correct, convective potential appears low through this period.

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