Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that initially broad large-scale ridging, across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western Northern America, may undergo amplification while shifting eastward during the early to middle portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, a significant short wave impulse, digging within increasingly northwesterly flow to its east, appears likely to contribute to substantive trough amplification along a negatively tilted axis from the Hudson Bay vicinity into the western Atlantic by late next week. This probably will be accompanied by another substantive cold intrusion across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a building surface ridge beneath increasingly confluent mid-level flow, east of the Mississippi Valley and across much of the Gulf Coast states. This should maintain/reinforce generally dry and stable boundary-layer conditions across all but the Florida Peninsula. Even if trends depicted in the latest (03/00Z) ECMWF (which include the faster inland progression of a significant mid-level trough on the leading edge of a strong zonal flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, and deeper surface troughing across the higher plains by early next weekend) are correct, convective potential appears low through this period.
There’s more click here.