SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

Models continue to indicate that low-amplitude mid-level ridging
within the westerlies will expand eastward, from the northern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains by late Monday night.  Downstream,
mid-level flow likely will remain largely zonal, with a number of
embedded, progressive short wave troughs.

One of these perturbations is forecast to accelerate east of the
northern Mid Atlantic coast during the day Monday, accompanied by a
developing wave along an offshore frontal zone.  While the front
advances further away from the Mid Atlantic coast, it may slowly
advance northward through portions of northern Florida, and more
rapidly northwestward through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
north of Tropical Storm Gamma.

Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along
and south of this front, with substantive boundary-layer
destabilization generally limited to central and southern portions
of the Florida Peninsula during the day Monday.  This could provide
support for some thunderstorm activity.

Elsewhere, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/04/2020

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