SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Broad, large-scale ridging appears likely to persist within the mid-latitude westerlies across the northeastern Pacific through western portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Models indicate that there could be some amplification of this ridging, downstream of digging troughing. More significantly, to the east of the ridging, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to rapidly dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies, through the upper Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. This may be accompanied by a 100+ kt northwesterly mid-level jet and a deepening surface cyclone. While there will be little available low-level moisture, destabilization beneath cold mid-level air, to the north of the cyclonic jet, may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm development near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes international border area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Seasonably moist conditions likely will remain confined to areas along and south of a persistent frontal zone approaching northwestern Gulf coastal areas, while remaining quasi-stationary across northern Florida into the western Atlantic. Beneath mid-level subtropical ridging, it appears that daytime heating will contribute to moderate boundary-layer destabilization across the Florida Peninsula. This could support at least some potential for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2020
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