SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Tuesday through
Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Broad, large-scale ridging appears likely to persist within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the northeastern Pacific through
western portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great
Plains.  Models indicate that there could be some amplification of
this ridging, downstream of digging troughing.  More significantly,
to the east of the ridging, a vigorous short wave impulse is
forecast to rapidly dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies, through
the upper Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night.  This may be
accompanied by a 100+ kt northwesterly mid-level jet and a deepening
surface cyclone.  While there will be little available low-level
moisture, destabilization beneath cold mid-level air, to the north
of the cyclonic jet, may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm
development near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes international border
area late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Seasonably moist conditions likely will remain confined to areas
along and south of a persistent frontal zone approaching
northwestern Gulf coastal areas, while remaining quasi-stationary
across northern Florida into the western Atlantic.  Beneath
mid-level subtropical ridging, it appears that daytime heating will
contribute to moderate boundary-layer destabilization across the
Florida Peninsula.  This could support at least some potential for a
few afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

..Kerr.. 10/04/2020

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