Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that an initially strong, zonal mid/upper jet, emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may undergo considerable amplification while progressing inland across the U.S. Pacific coast next weekend. This may include the evolution of a large and deep mid-level trough across the Great Basin into the Great Plains, and significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies by late next weekend. This may be preceded by a developing tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, which may eventually accelerate northward or northeastward, inland ahead of the amplifying trough in the westerlies. Spread among the various model output concerning these developments at this extended range remains quite large. However, increasing severe weather potential appears at least a possibility, perhaps most notably by Sunday across parts of the Great Plains. Even then, though, while the boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico probably will have seasonably high dew points, the extratropical cyclogenesis may occur rather far inland of the Gulf coast (over the central or northern Great Plains), and low-level moisture return through the Great Plains may just be commencing.
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