Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that an initially strong, zonal
mid/upper jet, emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may
undergo considerable amplification while progressing inland across
the U.S. Pacific coast next weekend.  This may include the evolution
of a large and deep mid-level trough across the Great Basin into the
Great Plains, and significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Rockies by late next weekend.  This may be preceded by a developing
tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, which may eventually
accelerate northward or northeastward, inland ahead of the
amplifying trough in the westerlies.  

Spread among the various model output concerning these developments
at this extended range remains quite large.  However, increasing
severe weather potential appears at least a possibility, perhaps
most notably by Sunday across parts of the Great Plains.  Even then,
though, while the boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico probably will have seasonably high dew points, the
extratropical cyclogenesis may occur rather far inland of the Gulf
coast (over the central or northern Great Plains), and low-level
moisture return through the Great Plains may just be commencing.

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