SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the
nation Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Broad mid-level ridging appears likely to persist within the
mid-latitude westerlies, across British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest into western portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains through this period.  Downstream, a
strong short wave perturbation, including a 100 kt northwesterly 500
mb jet streak, is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies
through the upper Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night.  This
may be accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone, but strengthening
low-level flow in its warm sector, across the northern Great Plains
into the Great Lakes region, likely will maintain a substantive
westerly component.

Beneath the cold mid-level air, to the north of the cyclonic
mid-level jet streak, forcing for ascent and destabilization
supportive of scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible
Tuesday through Tuesday night.  Otherwise, convective potential is
expected to remain limited by initially dry and/or stable conditions
east of the Rockies.  Models indicate that lower/mid tropospheric
ridging will be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast states,
precluding a moist inland return flow.

Substantive lower/mid-tropospheric moisture appears likely to remain
confined to the tropical easterlies, across parts of the Florida
Peninsula and much of the Gulf of Mexico, as well as along a remnant
frontal zone near the south Atlantic coast.  The front may provide
one focus for scattered thunderstorm activity, with additional
thunderstorm development also possible across (mainly) the southern
Florida Peninsula.

..Kerr.. 10/05/2020

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