SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Broad mid-level ridging appears likely to persist within the mid-latitude westerlies, across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into western portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains through this period. Downstream, a strong short wave perturbation, including a 100 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet streak, is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the upper Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. This may be accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone, but strengthening low-level flow in its warm sector, across the northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes region, likely will maintain a substantive westerly component. Beneath the cold mid-level air, to the north of the cyclonic mid-level jet streak, forcing for ascent and destabilization supportive of scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Tuesday through Tuesday night. Otherwise, convective potential is expected to remain limited by initially dry and/or stable conditions east of the Rockies. Models indicate that lower/mid tropospheric ridging will be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast states, precluding a moist inland return flow. Substantive lower/mid-tropospheric moisture appears likely to remain confined to the tropical easterlies, across parts of the Florida Peninsula and much of the Gulf of Mexico, as well as along a remnant frontal zone near the south Atlantic coast. The front may provide one focus for scattered thunderstorm activity, with additional thunderstorm development also possible across (mainly) the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Kerr.. 10/05/2020
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